fully support the system as currently constructed
in Die 100 26.11.2019 02:23von ruogu1234 • 285 Beiträge
In recent years, the explosion of advanced stats has changed the way we understand the game of hockey. For the coming season, TSN has launched TSN Hockey Analytics, a team focused on employing a series of emerging stats (such as Corsi, Fenwick, zone starts, and many more) to analyze elements of the game that arena€?t always apparent to the naked eye. One of the principal contributors, Travis Yost, has been on the forefront of the advanced stat movement in hockey. We talked to Travis about how he first got into hockey analytics, how ita€?s changed his understanding of the game, and what the rest of us can learn from crunching some numbers on the leaguea€?s best players. How long have you been working in the field of hockey analytics? Ia€?ve been doing it for close to five years now. I started doing a lot of the stat stuff at HockeyBuzz.com. Once [hockey analytics] became popular and emerged out of these really small areas on the internet, thata€?s when I jumped from HockeyBuzz to NHL Numbers, which is part of the Nations Network. From there I started writing for The Sporting News and the Ottawa Citizen, and that got me to where I am now with TSN. As a hockey fan, what first drew you to working with advanced stats? Ia€?ve been a big sports fan my whole life, and I was familiar with how impactful statistical analysis was to sports like baseball. I [said to myself], a€?I watch a lot of sports, I know what Ia€?m talking about.a€? But your eyes lie to you so much, and in 2009 I really started getting into data stuff. I guess I was part of the second wave of people who got into hockey analytics. The first wave included writers like Vic Ferrari, Tyler Dellow, and Sunny Mehta, who was hired by the Devils this summer, along with a handful of people out of Edmonton called the Oilogosphere [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oilogosphere] who started back in 2006 or 2007. When sites like Vica€?s Hockey and Objective NHL started, hockey analytics sites were almost impossible to find. This was before the Twitter age. Youa€?d only come across really smart hockey analytics writing in the far corners of the internet. But their initial flushing out of ideas impressed me to the point where I said, a€?You know, I think a lot of this stuff matters.a€? So I just started working on it on my own. Obviously over the last two years ita€?s exploded, but people dona€?t realize ita€?s not a new thing. Wea€?re coming up on the ninth season this stuff has been happening, and ita€?s a massive thing, but it took a long time to get people on board. What do you think precipitated the massive growth of hockey analytics in recent years? There have been case studies every year, whether ita€?s the Dallas Stars, or the Minnesota Wild in 2012, or Toronto last year. And much more often than not, hockey analytics have [separated] the paper tiger teams from the teams who are ready to take that next step. People point to last yeara€?s Toronto Maple Leafs as the big reason hockey analytics exploded into the mainstream. Because everyone who had been looking the data said, a€?This team is doomed to fail.a€? And lo and behold, they missed the playoffs last year. Previously, the other big case study was the 2012 LA Kings. They came in as an 8th seed, but they were winning something like 59% of the shot share heading into the playoffs. Anyone who was reading smart analytics stuff at that time was hearing, a€?This team is a juggernaut and theya€?re going to explode at any moment.a€? And they rolled through the postseason, and that was big, because it sold a lot of people on how valuable this stuff is with respect to predictability. I think that was when people started assigning real value to it. What traditional hockey stat do you believe is the most misleading? It seems laborious to even talk about it, because I think everyone knows plus/minus is misleading now. Therea€?s no value in it. Goals are such a random occurrence, and the attribution of the stat is problematic to begin with. I dona€?t think plus/minus tells you anything about the player: maybe therea€?s a chance his linemates shot 57% that season, or maybe that his goaltender stopped 87% of shots when he was on the ice. To be honest, no one really uses it anymore, and the few people who do, I cana€?t imagine theya€?ll be using it much longer. Can you break down one advanced stat you use and explain it to us? I think one of the best metrics is Relative Corsi, or CorsiREL. We know that good players post good Corsis and bad players post bad ones, but team effects cana€?t be understated. For example, Phil Kessel, who is one of the best players in the world, cana€?t possibly breach 44% Corsi because Toronto as a team is so bad. Whereas very average players on elite teams like Los Angeles or Chicago are posting Corsis of 56 or 57%. The biggest misconception is that the Kings or Blackhawks player must therefore be better than Phil Kessel, and thata€?s not that case. What I like to use is Relative Corsi, which captures a playera€?s ability to drive play compared to his teammates. Last year, Kessel posted a +2.02%, suggestive of Torontos ability to control play at even-strength more favorably with him on the ice as opposed to off. Another perfect example of this is the Sedin twins, who for years have posted insane Relative Corsi rates. Regardless of whether Vancouver is good or bad, the Sedins still look exceptional. Last year, while the rest of their team was middling, Vancouvera€?s possession numbers dropped as a team. But the Sedins still posted exceptional numbers when they were on the ice. Theya€?re so elite at what they do in generating shots and generating control of the puck that wea€?re able to say, a€?These are elite players.a€? So thata€?s one metric we look at to capture cross-team player analysis. How have hockey analytics changed your understanding of the game? I watch hockey totally differently, and I dona€?t say that just to make a point. I used to spend so much time just watching the offensive zone, because thata€?s where the goals are scored, and thata€?s what we care about. When I first got into hockey analytics, I kept my focus on the offensive zone, because thata€?s where the shots happen, and shots are much more meaningful. Over the years, Ia€?ve realized that ita€?s not about the shots themselves, but how those shots are being generated. Now I spend a lot more of my energy watching the neutral zone. If youa€?re casually watching the game with your friends, the neutral zone seems to be where a lot of nothing happens. But really, much of what leads up to offensive success is how teams come through or defend the neutral zone. Because we know how valuable neutral zone possession is, as opposed to dump and chase. So Ia€?ve started paying a lot of attention to tracking neutral zone performance, because while it seems like a dead area, ita€?s really the most important area on the ice. Custom Nigeria Soccer Jerseys . Argentina, who have yet to beat New Zealand in 17 meetings, rocked the All Blacks with an early converted try to backrower Juan Manuel Leguizamon and led 7-0 after five minutes. But Smiths double in the 23rd and 26th minutes - when Argentina was reduced to 14 men by the sin-binning of hooker Eusebio Guinazu - turned the tide of the match and set up New Zealands third straight Championship win. 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Kevin Love grabbed his 4,000th career rebound as part of a 19-point, 13-board effort to lead the Timberwolves over the Utah Jazz 112-97 on Tuesday night.TSN Baseball Analyst Steve Phillips answers several questions surrounding the game each week. This weeks topics include the reality of teh Blue Jays talent, the heir apparent to Derek Jeter as the next face of baseball, the one-game playoff game format and playoff predictions. 1) Now that we have the chance to look back over the entire season, did the 2014 Toronto Blue Jays underachieve or were they ultimately just not good enough to compete in both the American League East and in the Wild Card race? Is there one glaring change that you see that needs to be made with the team in terms of how they play or a specific position need that has to be their offseason priority as they begin to prepare for the 2015 season? I dont believe that the Blue Jays underachieved this season. I believe they played to the level of the talent on their roster. They looked like an 83-win team. They played like an 83-win team. They were an 83-win team. The Jays were particularly streaky over the course of the season but that wasnt completely unexpected and is definitely explainable. Teams that lack a #1 starter are prone to streaks. The Jays lack an ace. They dont have a guy who eats up 220 innings and is a +10 in his won-loss record. They dont have the leader who is the stopper. Neither Mark Buerhle nor RA Dickey are aces anymore. They are quality #3 starters. JA Happ and Drew Hutchison are #5 starters. Marcus Stroman made a nice impression in his first 20 major league starts but he isnt an ace. At least not yet. In a season in which two aces were traded, the Jays were bystanders. Jon Lester and David Price got traded during the season and could have been difference-makers for the Toronto. But alas, the Jays did not have the financial wherewithal to even try for them. The Jays bullpen was mediocre this season. Casey Janssen didnt make his first appearance until mid-May and he when he came back, he wasnt nearly as effective as he had been in previous years. He only had 28 strikeouts in 45.2 innings pitched. He had a 3.94 ERA and gave up more hits than innings pitched. The lefty relievers, Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup were more effective than the righty relievers other than rookie Aaron Sanchez, who was awesome in his first taste of the majors. When it comes to position players, the Jays really suffered with inconsistency at second base, third base and centrefield. I know that Brett Lawrie is versatile because he can play both second and third base but he is inadequate offensively at both positions. And he was better than whomever was playing the other position when he wasnt, which speaks to the significance of the weakness. The centerfielders hit .213/.275/.361. That is the lowest batting average in the AL. Colby Rasmus is not a functional offensive player. He doesnt hit for enough power to warrant his low on-base percentage. Anthony Gose still hasnt proven he is a major league hitter as he hit..226/.311/.293. Every team has flaws. There are no perfect teams and no perfect players. The Jays came up short from making the playoffs this year because of one big hole in the rotation, a couple of arms in the bullpen and three offensive deficiencies. The Jays needed a #1 starter, upgrades in CF and at either second base or third base. Those are certainly needs again for next season but they will also need to add a closer and a leftfielder with the pending free agency of Casey Janssen and Melky Cabrera, respectively. Of course, this will all cost money and it may not be there. GM Alex Anthopolous has his work cut out for himself. He is going to have to get creative to reconstruct his roster in a financially responsible way. 2) With Derek Jeter no longer an active Major Leaguer, is there a player that you see as either the new or next face of baseball? Is this a mantle that falls squarely to Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout or is there a more veteran player that you see stepping into that void until Mr. Trout has a little more experience and a better chance to make his legend grow? In the olden days when a king died, the people would yell, The king is dead. Long live the king. It was a statement acknowledging the departure of the king but also of the succession of his successor. Derek Jeter isnt dead by any means but he has left very big shoes to fill. His shadow at Yankee Stadium was longer than anyone. It didnt matter that A-Rod was bigger than Jeter, Dereks shadow always extended further. Jeter was the face and voice of not only the Yankees but of Major League Baseball as well. With his departure, baseball needs new leadership. This offseason, baseball has been given a great gift. The playoff teams include: Pittsburghs Andrew McCutcheon, Washingtons Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, Baltimores Manny Machado (injured) and Adam Jones, the Dodgers Yasiel Puig and Clayton Kershaw and the Angels Mike Trout. There are certainly a few other big name young players on non-playoff teams that have sex appeal but the bulk of them are playing in October. It may be asking too much for any one player to have to fill Jeters shoes. If I had to pick one player, it would be Mike Trout because he has the ability, looks and charisma that scream superstar. Baseball has been criticized for not marketing its stars properly. Now is the time for that to be resolved. The game needs to sell fans on the quantity of young personable stars in the game now. When they are marketed in numbers, there is less pressure on any one player to be Derek Jeter perfect. We need to be introduced to the young stars in a different way. We need to learn what they are like and what makes them special and different. The more, the merrier so when any one of them takes a misstep, we still have other young stars to admire. There will never be anotheer Derek Jeter.ddddddddddddHe was amazing on and off the field. He represented his family, the Yankee organization and the game with class and dignity. He was perfectly imperfect. I believe in the young studs in baseball today. We are very likely headed into a remarkable era of great young starts who will re-energize baseballs fanbase. 3) Now that weve seen the Kansas City Royals advance over the Oakland Athletics in an extra-inning thriller and the Pittsburgh Pirates get blown out by the San Francisco Giants in the two Wild Card games, do you think thats a fair way for a team to be eliminated from the playoffs? Would baseball be better served to play a three-game series to determine the final Division series team or are you in favour of a one-game winner-take-all start to the post-season? My Mets teams in 1999 and 2000 made the playoffs as Wild Card teams. There wasnt a second Wild Card back then so we jumped right into the Division Series and were matched against the division winner with the best record that wasnt the Braves. Back then, the Wild Card winner couldnt play the division winner from its own division in the Division Series. In both seasons, we had to play until the last day of the season to even get into the playoffs. In effect, we had been playing playoff baseball for the final few weeks of the regular season. I can make the argument that we were better prepared to compete in the NLDS than the division winners we were matched against. Division winners sometimes coast over the last week or two of the season if they clinch early. They rest their players and at times get a bit complacent and rusty. There just didnt seem to be enough of a reward for winning the division. The change in format with a second wild card winner has addressed the issue in a significant way. The one game playoff series between wild card winners is not only appropriate and fair, its exciting. The one-game playoff series between the two Wild Card teams creates a disadvantage as they need to pitch their best available pitcher, which is often their #1 starter. Yes, a win allows the one Wild Card team to advance but they then face the team with the best overall record in the league that has its pitching lined up the way they want it. A three-game series would actually be an advantage for the Wild Card winner as their ace would be that much closer to being ready to pitch in the Division Series than they are after the one-game series. The overall goal isnt about being fair to the Wild Card teams, it is about being fair to the division winners. I fully support the system as currently constructed. 4) So here are my playoff predictions: ALDS - Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Despite the fact that the Orioles are off to a 1-0 lead in the series, I am picking the Tigers to win this series. I believe the Tigers starting pitching depth will prevail over the Orioles powerful lineup. Whereas, the Orioles pitching is a bit underrated, I believe the Tigers will beat up on the Os pitching and score a bunch of runs. Good pitching beats good hitting. The Tigers will throw more quality innings despite the bullpen issues they face. Tigers win in 5 games. Series MVP: JD Martinez ALDS - Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals The Royals are currently riding the high of two dramatic extra-inning wins in the payoffs so far. They play good defence and have tremendous speed to help them manufacture runs. The Royals have momentum and confidence. That being said, momentum is only as good as your next days starting pitcher and I like the pitching matchups for the Angels moving forward in the series. Look for Mike Trout and Albert Pujols to carry the load offensively. Angels in four games. Series MVP: Albert Pujols NLDS - Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants The Giants advanced after defeating the Pirates in the Wild Card game. They had to burn their ace Madison Bumgarner in that matchup. The Nats get to line up the pitching they way they want, taking into account the home and road splits of their rotation. The Nationals have as balanced a team as is still alive. The Nats will win the Series in four games. Series MVP: Adam LaRoche NLDS - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis Cardinals The Cardinals are a very professional team. They do things the right way and find themselves in the playoffs what seems like every year. They were pushed until the end but held on to win the division. The Game 1 matchup with the Dodgers is the postseasons most compelling with Clayton Kershaw against Adam Wainwright. Kershaw wins Game 1 and the Dodgers sweep the series. Series MVP: Matt Kemp ALCS - Detroit Tigers vs. LA Angels This will be a great matchup of the best starting pitching against the team with the best record in th AL. The Tigers have had their number in the past and it will continue this year. The Angels wont be able to contain Miguel Cabrera as he shows Trout who is boss. Trout will erupt and respond to Cabrera but the Tigers win the series in 6 games. Series MVP: Miguel Cabrera. NLCS - LA Dodgers vs .Washington Nationals This will be an epic series. Two very evenly matched teams with deep starting pitching and young stars in the field will battle. This series will go back and forth ending in a Game 7. The Dodgers will prevail and advance to the World Series. Series MVP: Adrian Gonzalez WORLD SERIES - Detroit Tigers vs. LA Dodgers What a matchup this will be: great starting pitching and superstar players. Two teams built to win now with extraordinary talent and balance. The one area where there is a significant disparity is the bullpen. The Tigers Achilles heel all season long will show itself again. They will blow two late leads and the LA Dodgers will win the series in six games. Series MVP: Yasiel Puig ' ' '
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