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athlete on the field. But running back has a high replacement level in the

in Gesuche 24.07.2019 03:49
von mary123 • 1.530 Beiträge

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Grayson Murray won the Nationwide Childrens Hospital Championship on Sunday and Cameron Smith and Kevin Tway wrapped up PGA Tour cards.Already guaranteed a PGA Tour card with an 18th-place finish on the Web.com Tours regular-season money list, Murray closed with a 3-under 68 to beat Smith by a stroke in the third of four events in the Web.com Tour Finals. Tway tied for third with third-round leader Martin Flores.I want to think this is only the beginning of what could be on the PGA Tour, Murray said. I need to keep working really hard and keep going. Its very, very tough to win out here and Im going to enjoy this win for sure, but I know the great champions keep working even harder after they get that first win so thats my plan.Murray finished at 12-under 272 on Ohio States Scarlet Course and earned $180,000 for his first tour victory to jump from 11th to second with $407,963 on the PGA Tour priority list among the 25 card-earners from the Web.com money list. The former Wake Forest and Arizona State player also tops the Web.com Tour Finals money list with $248,000.I racked up so many top-10s this year, I was knocking on the door, and I knew if I kept putting myself in position on Sunday it was going to just be a matter of time before I won, Murray said. Just credit to everyone around me keeping me positive through those stretches where I did miss the cut this year, and my parents, my swing coach, some mentors back home, just it couldnt be possible without all them.Murray will be 23 on Saturday. He lost in a three-man playoff in August in the Web.com Tour event in Wichita, Kansas.After Smith made a bogey at the par-4 15th, Murray finished with five pars to close out the tournament.Stayed patient all day, Murray said. Made a bogey on 8, and that birdie on 10 really got me going on the back nine and made a great couple par saves on the back nine that I was giving myself five, six footers it seemed like every hole on that back nine, but I was confident stroking it well. Its just a dream scenario, walking up 18 with a one-shot lead.Smith also shot a 67. After finishing 157th in the PGA Tours FedEx Cups standings, the Australian made $108,000 to go from 48th to third with $114,910 in the series race for 25 more PGA Tour cards.Im just happy that Im heading back to the PGA Tour, to be honest, Smith said. That was, obviously, the goal through these four weeks and to get it done a week early is definitely a relief.Tway had a 67 to match Flores (74) at 10 under. Tway was 27th on the Web.com money list. His $58,000 check moved him from 52nd to ninth with $63,975, more than enough to secure one of the 25 cards. The last PGA Tour card went at $33,650 in 2013, $36,312 in 2014 and $32,206 last year.Flores earned a card with a fifth-place finish on the Web.com money list. Hes fifth on PGA Tour priority list with $346,313, with regular-season money counting in the total.Mike Hicks, the late Payne Stewarts caddie for all three major championships, caddied for Murray.It was awesome. We were walking up the fairway, and I said, `I hope we can get 10 more years out of you on my bag and just 10 more years of enjoyment, Murray said. Because after Payne Stewart passed away, hes had good players, but I dont think hes really enjoyed his walk like he did with Payne. Im not trying to compare myself to Payne whatsoever, but Im really good friends with Mike and his son, and we go back a long way. I hope we can have many more years of enjoyment out on the course. Axel Witsel Belgium Jersey . 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You might have to go all the way back to Terrell Davis and the 1998 Denver Broncos for an example, and that might not be a fair one. Davis was playing alongside of a Hall of Fame quarterback in John Elway, after all. A more modern case such as Marshawn Lynch is misleading, because his 2013 Seahawks were successful thanks mostly to their defense, particularly their pass defense.The Vikings might want to keep that in mind when weighing the $18 million salary Adrian Peterson is due next season. Peterson, who is likely to miss the rest of 2016 with a knee injury and will turn 32 next season, has probably seen his best days as a runner. Its still possible for him to have some productive seasons ahead, but thats not the question for the Vikings. The question is whether he is worth $18 million. All of Petersons pay next season is in base salary and roster bonus, so Minnesota can cut him before 2017 without incurring any cap penalty.It has long been said that the NFL is a passing league, and for good reason. Its not just that passing has become more frequent and successful; it is more decisive in terms of scoring and winning. We know this thanks to Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA). EPA is our best measure of overall scoring productivity, measuring an offenses ability to move the ball, limit turnovers, and even suppress opponents opportunities to score. WPA does the same thing, but also considers game situation factors like score, time, and timeouts remaining.In 2015, the spread among the 32 teams was 2.3 EPA when passing, measured in terms of standard deviation. When running, the spread among the 32 teams was 0.7 EPA, less than a third of the impact of passing. In terms of WPA, the difference was only slightly less stark. The standard deviation among teams for passing was 1.1 WPA, and for running it was 0.4 WPA. In other words, a team should greatly prefer being a top passing team than a top running team by a factor of 3 to 1. Another way to look at this disparity is that being the most dominant running offense in the league would equate to being a modestly above-average passing offense.So in a world where $18 million is more in line with the salary of a second-tier quarterback, is it plausible that any running back would be worth that amount? If any running back would be worth it, it would be Peterson (or Peterson in his prime, at least). His suspension for nearly all of the 2014 season offers a conveniently large natural experiment for testing how much of an impact he made on the Vikings fortunes in recent years.Lets look at the past four full regular seasons (2012-15), and compare how the Vikings offense performed with Peterson on the field compared with off the field. On rushing plays, the Vikings performed measurably better with Peterson. Without him on the field, they averaged minus-0.01 EPA/play. But with him on the field, they averaged 0.02 EPA. Roughly speaking, that difference equates to about half a point per game. Another way to look at it is that the difference of 0.03 EPA/play would make an otherwise average offense into the 13th-best offense. Thats good, just not $18 million good.But Peterson contributed more than just rushing to the Vikings offense. Smart people in football will tell you his mere presence has drawn extra defenders near the line of scrimmage and has helped open up his teams passing.dddddddddddd Its a plausible assertion, but how true is it?Comparing Weeks 2 through 17 in 2014 and 2015 can give us an idea of Petersons influence on opposing defenses. Peterson played in Week 1 in 14 before missing the rest of the season, and without him, the Vikings saw an average of 6.7 defenders in the box. But with Peterson in 15, they saw an average of 7.1. And in those same games, the box was considered loaded, meaning there were more potential tacklers than potential blockers, only 17 times without Peterson in 14, but 117 times with Peterson in 15. So it looks like there was an effect, but what was the bottom line in terms of passing productivity?Lets look at the Vikings passing EPA rates with and without Peterson. On all pass plays, with Peterson on the field over the past four regular seasons, Minnesota averaged 0.12 EPA/play. Without him on the field? They averaged, yes, 0.12 EPA/play. A lot of other factors can affect those numbers, such as quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters development in the past two seasons, so lets break it out by year. The difference with and without Peterson on passing plays in the last four full seasons was minus-0.07, minus-0.04, minus-0.01, and 0.08 EPA/play, respectively. So although Peterson draws in the defense, it seems that the effect of an elite running back such as Peterson on the passing game is probably overstated at best, and non-existent at worst.So how can some free agent running backs be so overpaid? A few decades ago, the NFL was truly a running league and great RBs could make a much bigger impact on the game. Theres also the illusion from the fact that running backs happen to be the guys with the ball in their hands and the stats on the back of their trading cards. We all remember the days on the sandlot or on the varsity team where the running back is always the best athlete on the field. But running back has a high replacement level in the NFL in 2016, meaning there are a number of competent players available who arent much of a liability at the position, compared to relatively scarce positions like cornerback or offensive line. Lastly, theres the age-old causation/correlation fallacy in which running backs on winning teams get to pad their yardage totals by sealing wins in the fourth quarter, making them appear to be causing their teams success.Even Peterson in his prime would not be worth close to $18 million. Although such an athlete can be fascinating to watch and can win fantasy games for fans, the modern running game just barely moves the needle when it comes to competing for championships, and Minnesota is Exhibit A.After this season, the Vikings have 19 pending free agents currently earning a total of $34 million in per-year salaries over their contracts, including several starters. That $18 million in savings could go a long way toward shoring up other, more critical positions. Even a severe reduction in salary to half or even a third of what Peterson is due would be a mistake.There is some question whether Minnesota can cut him. Peterson has to be able to pass a physical to be cut, and his contract says his 2017 pay must be exercised before the end of the current season. But assuming the Vikings have a choice, sadly, there should be no choice. ' ' '

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